The 234th edition of The Old Farmer’s Almanac, North America’s oldest continuously published periodical, has been released, forecasting a warmer and stormier autumn for much of the United States. The much-anticipated Old Farmer’s Almanac fall forecast points to unseasonably high temperatures and significant precipitation, a “soggy, sizzling, and shivery” season that deviates from long-term climate averages and sets the stage for a tumultuous winter.
This annual seasonal prediction, a blend of traditional methodology and modern analysis, continues to capture public imagination even as government agencies prepare their own forecasts using different technologies. The Almanac’s prognosis suggests that crisp autumn air may be delayed for millions of Americans.
Old Farmer’s Almanac Fall Forecast Calls for “Steamy” Autumn Conditions
| Key Forecast Takeaway | Regional Detail | Basis of Prediction |
| Warmer Than Normal | The eastern two-thirds of the nation, from the Rockies to the Atlantic coast. | A proprietary formula analyzing solar activity, prevailing weather patterns, and historical climate data. |
| Stormy & Wet Conditions | Predicted for the Atlantic Seaboard, the Deep South, and through the Midwest. | The Almanac points to a potential for late-season tropical storm activity and an active storm track across the central U.S. |
| Cooler & Drier | Expected across the Desert Southwest and Southern California. | This pattern suggests a deviation from the dominant trends affecting the rest of the country. |
What the Old Farmer’s Almanac Fall Forecast Predicts for 2025
The 2026 edition of the Almanac, which provides forecasts from November 2024 through October 2025, calls for autumn temperatures that are notably above average for the majority of the country. According to its editor, Janice Stillman, the season will be characterized by a “split personality,” with significant warmth dominating but punctuated by stormy interruptions.
“We’re seeing indicators that point to a ‘steamy’ fall, particularly in the East,” Stillman stated in a press release accompanying the new edition. “This doesn’t mean there won’t be cool days, but the overall temperature trend for September and October is warmer than what we’d typically see.”
The forecast outlines several key regional variations:
- Northeast and Mid-Atlantic: Temperatures are expected to be warmer than normal, with higher-than-average precipitation. The Almanac cautions about potential Nor’easters developing late in the season.
- The Deep South: A “soggy and sizzling” autumn is on tap, with both temperature and rainfall forecast to be well above normal, extending the humid, summer-like feel.
- Midwest and Great Lakes: The region is split, with the Upper Midwest experiencing mild and wet conditions, while the Ohio Valley is predicted to have a warmer and drier season.
- Plains States: A mix of conditions is expected, with the Northern Plains seeing cooler and wetter weather, while the Southern Plains are forecast to be warmer and drier than average.
- West Coast: The Pacific Northwest is predicted to have a mild and wet fall, while California and the Southwest are expected to be cooler and drier than is typical for the season.
The Almanac’s Method: A 234-Year-Old Formula
Since its first edition in 1792 by founder Robert B. Thomas, The Old Farmer’s Almanac has used a proprietary formula to make its long-range predictions. The organization claims this method was developed by Thomas and has been refined over the centuries, with the exact calculations kept secret in a black box at the Almanac’s offices in Dublin, New Hampshire.
The Almanac states its forecasts are based on three primary disciplines:
- Solar science: The study of sunspots and other solar activity.
- Climatology: The analysis of prevailing long-term weather patterns.
- Meteorology: The study of the atmosphere.
The publication has long defended its methods against skepticism, claiming a historical accuracy rate of around 80%. This figure is a point of contention among independent scientific evaluators.
Scientific Perspective: How Modern Forecasting Compares
Mainstream atmospheric science relies on different methods for seasonal predictions. Agencies like the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) use complex computer models that analyze vast amounts of data from satellites, ocean buoys, and weather stations. These models simulate the interactions between the ocean and the atmosphere, such as the El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO), to forecast temperature and precipitation trends months in advance.
According to a statement from the Climate Prediction Center (CPC), a branch of NOAA, official government fall forecasts are typically issued in late summer. Meteorologists often caution the public to view long-range predictions from non-governmental sources with skepticism.
Dr. John Wallace, a retired professor of Atmospheric Sciences at the University of Washington, has previously commented on the topic, stating, “The methods of the Almanac are not transparent and are not peer-reviewed, which is the standard for scientific work.” He added, “While it’s a fun tradition, NOAA’s probabilistic forecasts provide a more scientifically grounded view of the likely climate conditions.”
Beyond Autumn: A Glimpse into the Winter Outlook
In addition to its fall forecast, the Almanac provides a preliminary winter outlook. The 2025-2026 forecast suggests a particularly cold and snowy winter for the Northeast and Midwest, while the West is expected to see milder and drier-than-normal winter conditions. These long-range winter predictions are often a major driver of the Almanac’s sales and public discussion.
As autumn approaches, businesses from ski resorts to energy companies will watch how these competing forecasts evolve. While many rely on official government data for planning, the enduring popularity of The Old Farmer’s Almanac shows a strong public appetite for a glimpse into the weather of tomorrow, regardless of the methods used to predict it.
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